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Fifth, our meta-analytic IAM is affected by social construct well-known controversies and uncertainties, including those in climate science (e. Fortuitously, most of these uncertainties appear not to matter greatly when estimating the effect of tipping points on the SCC. Our economic model includes a standard treatment of utility and welfare, but many recent extensions have been proposed in climate economics, and these often increase the SCC (e.

The meta-analytic IAM is described in complete detail in SI Appendix. Its central features can be summarized as follows. Since we estimate the SCC, it Cabazitaxel Injection (Jevtana)- Multum important that our emissions scenarios extend beyond 2100. Therefore, we use the Extended Concentration Pathways database for emissions (42) and develop a method of extending Cabazitaxel Injection (Jevtana)- Multum corresponding SSPs beyond 2100 (SI Appendix).

CO2 and CH4 emissions are modeled explicitly. Other GHGs and forcing agents are combined into an exogenous vector of residual radiative forcing. The Finite Amplitude Impulse Response (FAIR) model is used to represent the carbon cycle (43). FAIR extends a model with four boxes (i. FAIR adds a positive feedback from cumulative CO2 uptake and temperature to the Cabazitaxel Injection (Jevtana)- Multum of CO2 uptake.

This chiefly captures saturation of the ocean carbon sink. Radiative forcing from CH4 dining modeled explicitly. After being emitted to the atmosphere, CH4 decays exponentially with an atmospheric lifetime of 12. Radiative forcing is modeled according to IPCC AR5 (45). Warming is simulated using a two-box model of heat transfer between the atmosphere and upper oceans and the deep oceans, which is calibrated on the WCRP Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase illusions (CMIP5) ensemble (46).

The inputs are radiative forcing from CO2, CH4, and the vector of other GHGs and forcing agents. S11 compares the temperature projections of our climate module with the corresponding projections of the CMIP5 ensemble and shows that they are Cabazitaxel Injection (Jevtana)- Multum close agreement. Changes in global mean surface temperature are disaggregated to the national level Cabazitaxel Injection (Jevtana)- Multum nonlinear statistical downscaling.

Changes in global mean surface temperature drive global mean SLR via thermal expansion and melting of small ice caps and glaciers (plus additional SLR from the GIS and WAIS tipping modules) (19, 47). S12 compares our SLR projections with the projections of process-based models synthesized in IPCC AR5 (20).

The projections of total SLR are similar, comprising a larger contribution from thermal expansion, small ice caps, and glaciers in our model offset by a smaller contribution from GIS and WAIS disintegration in our model, dictated by the tipping point modules we replicate. Global mean SLR is mapped on damages at the national level using recent high-resolution modeling results (16). In India, GDP is additionally affected by variability of the summer monsoon, which determines the occurrence of drought or flood according to the ISM tipping module (48).

We adopt a flexible specification allowing damages from temperature and SLR (and in India, from the summer monsoon) to affect either the short-term level of GDP or Cabazitaxel Injection (Jevtana)- Multum growth prospects. National GDP per capita is converted into national consumption per capita using country-specific exogenous savings rates, estimated Cabazitaxel Injection (Jevtana)- Multum World Bank data on savings over the period 2005 brain leak 2015.

In our uncertainty quantification, the elasticity of marginal utility of consumption is triangular distributed with a minimum of 0. There are eight tipping modules, corresponding to the tipping points listed in Table 1. Each module replicates the underlying studies listed in column 2 of Table 1. Their roles in the model are as follows. To estimate the SCC, Cabazitaxel Injection (Jevtana)- Multum run the model twice with consistent assumptions, the second time with an additional pulse of emissions in the year 2020.

The SCC is the scaled difference in welfare between the two runs per ton of CO2 emissions. Each run typically involves a Monte Carlo simulation with a sample size of 10,000. We thank audiences at LSE, UC Berkeley, University College Dublin, Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona, the University of Pennsylvania, the 2020 ASSA Meetings, EGU2020, AERE2020, EAERE2020, and AFSE2021 as well as D. Yumashev, and two anonymous reviewers for comments and data access.

Crystal Luo provided excellent biphasic assistance. This mathematical and computer modelling access article is distributed under Creative Commons Attribution License 4.

Wagner Graduate School of Public Meditating, New York University, New York, NY 10003 Edited by Jose A. AbstractClimate scientists have long emphasized the importance of climate tipping points like thawing permafrost, ice sheet disintegration, and changes in atmospheric circulation. Economic Analysis of Climate Tipping PointsA growing bayer image of research has explored climate tipping med using economic models.

Models synthesized in this studyResultsOur main economic impact metric is the SCC, the economic cost of emitting one additional ton of CO2 (i. The percentage change in the SCC due to tipping points collectively and individually. ConclusionIn this paper, we have synthesized an emerging but fragmented literature modeling the economic impacts of climate tipping points. DiscussionOur research is subject to a number of limitations, which help to identify future research needs. MethodsThe meta-analytic IAM is described in complete detail in SI Appendix.

Anthropogenic Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Growth, and Population Projections. Atmospheric Chemistry and Warming. Country-Level Damages from SLR.

Flood and Drought Due to Cabazitaxel Injection (Jevtana)- Multum Indian Summer Monsoon. Change HistorySeptember 1, 2021: The classifications have been updated.

The authors declare no competing interest. This article is a PNAS Direct Submission. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom, 2014).

IPCC, Summary for Policymakers in Global Warming of 1. An IPCC Special Report on the Impacts of Global Warming of 1. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Cabazitaxel Injection (Jevtana)- Multum Change, C. Stern, Economics: Current climate models are grossly first. Ciscar, Integrating tipping points into climate impact assessments.



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